Through most of my youth, I was a pessimist. My Mom called me Eeyore, after the gloomy donkey in Winnie the Pooh. Over the past few decades, I’ve become increasingly optimistic, emotionally and as a matter of principle. First the Cold War ended, and the threat of a global nuclear holocaust receded. In the mid-1990s I became a father, and in 2005 I started teaching at Stevens. I began to see my old pessimism as juvenile and self-indulgent. I grandiosely thought: if people listen to me, as a teacher and writer, it’s my duty to give them hope.
The trick is being realistic as well as optimistic. I can be harshly critical, bashing cancer care, psychiatry, and medicine in general, and harping on social blights like racism, sexism, inequality, and war. But I complain because I believe things can be better. Given the progress humanity has achieved—just in my lifetime!—optimism is justified. We’ve become healthier and wealthier, freer and more peaceful. These trends should continue, as long as we keep striving to extend them. Americans even elected a black President. Twice!
Being an optimist has gotten complicated lately. The left, with which I identify, has become increasingly gloomy, while the right declares, “Capitalism will fix everything!” Some green progressives suggest that any hopefulness about climate change, and more generally humanity’s future, is counterproductive, even immoral. They downplay progress, whether past or prospective, and rub our faces in worst-case scenarios. I disagree with this stance. Fear and despair are more counterproductive than hope — as long as that hope has a basis in reality.
And that brings me to our current crisis. Trump and his Republican allies, early on, downplayed the threat posed by the coronavirus, in a manner reminiscent of their stance toward climate change. Recently, Trump has acknowledged the seriousness of the pandemic while assuring us that he’s handling it.
I don’t blame Trump for being optimistic in and of itself. The job of a leader during a crisis like this is to project confidence, to keep people from panicking. I do blame Trump and conservative pundits for being unrealistic or simply wrong about many details of the pandemic. That is, Trump’s optimism about the coronavirus hasn’t been based on facts and expert analysis. It has been based on crass political calculation and willful ignorance.
But just because Trump et al have indulged in irresponsible optimism during this crisis doesn’t mean that all optimism is irresponsible. Optimism in a time like this is crucial. As with climate change, we need to be realistic, to face the problem squarely, while resisting fear and despair. We need to retain our faith that human intelligence and decency will prevail. Trump, for all his missteps, at least has the sense to seek advice from Anthony Fauci, who since the dawn of the AIDS pandemic in the 1980s has been a leading authority on infectious disease.
Let me spell out, in this dark time, some of my hopes:
- In November, voters appalled by the incompetence and mendacity of the Trump administration will vote for Joe Biden, who will win in a landslide.
- Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris will convince Americans, and Congress, that we need universal health care coverage to handle future epidemics, as well as to boost the effectiveness and slash the costs of American medicine.
- In response to the economic turmoil triggered by the pandemic, Biden and Congress will pass tax reforms and other legislation aimed at decreasing inequality and poverty and strengthening social safety nets.
- Biden will get Congress and the public to support aggressive measures for countering climate change, in part because of growing evidence that global warming is making pandemics more likely.
- Just as it did following the 2008 recession, fossil-fuel consumption will plummet in response to the economic downturn. The decline in emissions will give the U.S. and other countries more time to make the transition to a low- or no-carbon future and hence avert the worst consequences of climate change.
- The pandemic will bring about a new era of international cooperation, even, or especially, between rivals like the U.S. and China. Led by the U.S., which spends more on defense than the next seven biggest spenders combined, nations will start diverting resources away from their militaries and toward measures for reducing climate change and poverty and improving health care and education.
I told you I was optimistic. Stay safe, and hopeful.
John Horgan directs the Center for Science Writings. This column is adapted from one originally published on his Scientific American blog, “Cross-check.”
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