It is no surprise to hear that many Democratic candidates are having to lay off campaign workers or even end their campaigns altogether. The Democratic field at one point had more than 20 notable candidates running for President, but today we are left with about 14 notable candidates. These candidates can be broken down into three tiers based on their polling numbers, fundraising numbers, and overall public recognition. The first tier consists of former Vice President Joe Biden, Senator Bernie Sanders from Vermont, and Senator Elizabeth Warren from Massachusetts. The second tier consists of Senator Kamala Harris from California and Mayor Pete Buttigieg from Indiana. The rest of the candidates fall into the third tier where they aren’t raising much money and don’t have anywhere near the polling numbers they need.
So let’s focus on the first tier — VP Biden is still the frontrunner, but not by much. Looking at most polls, Warren and Sanders are closing in on him. However, these three top candidates represent an interesting idea within the Democratic Party. Biden is more of a moderate candidate who still holds onto many traditional Democratic views. On the other hand, both Warren and Sanders are much further to the left than Biden, yet combined, their polling numbers would serve to almost double those of Biden. This shows a significant shift in the Democratic Party and what the majority of its voters are looking for in the nominee. It is surprising to see Biden still at/near the top given his many gaffes in recent months and the fact that Warren and Sanders are such strong candidates. Currently, all of their campaigns are looking strong and show no signs of slowing in the near future.
Onto the second tier. Both Harris and Buttigieg have begun to struggle in recent weeks. Both campaigns do not have the same level of support or feeling of enthusiasm that they once did. Buttigieg may still be a young, charismatic, big ideas kind of guy, but that doesn’t pay the bills. Just this week, Harris has had to layoff campaign workers and reduce her footprint in a number of key primary states. She is not the only Democratic candidate to feel the pressure of not having enough money to keep going. Many others in the second and third tiers have closed down offices recently and/or laid off campaign staff to keep ongoing.
Finally, the third tier. Many in the third tier are self-funding their campaigns or are relying heavily on social media to get their message out. One good example of this is Representative Tulsi Gabbard from Hawaii. Gabbard has been making a name for herself by breaking from traditional Democratic norms, talking with right-wing news outlets, and even attacking former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. This has helped her to gain traction amongst moderates and even Republicans, but not as much among Democrats. Tulsi will need to continue this broad-based approach if she wants to go on to win in the general election, but she needs to focus on winning her own party over first to become the nominee.
So what is the state of the Democratic primary as of right now? It appears to be filled with a lack of money and enthusiasm (with the exception of a few candidates), and the party appears to be moving further to the left than in the past. If this continues, there is a better chance of Donald Trump being re-elected in 2020. The Democrats need to be careful. You can’t put old Joe Biden against Trump, and the far-left attitude of the party will drive independent voters away. The party is in for a major awakening (or destruction, really) if it can’t find a good middle-of-the-road candidate. For crying out loud, so many people don’t like this president, but they will continue to see him as the lesser of two evils if the Democrats remain on their current track.
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