With the first signs of fall starting to appear as we move into October, we leave behind the remnants of one of the hottest summers on record. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), this past August was the planet’s hottest to date in the 174 years the administration has recorded, with global surface temperatures 2.25 degrees Fahrenheit above the 20th century average. August temperatures followed a record high June and July as well, making 2023 the hottest summer in the Northern hemisphere, and the hottest winter for the Southern hemisphere, according to NOAA.
“[It] was the warmest August on record by quite a lot, it was also the globe’s 45th consecutive August and the 534th consecutive month with temperatures above the 20th century average,” says NOAA chief scientist Dr. Sarah Kapnick. According to Kapnick, El Niño, a naturally occurring phenomenon where the U.S. and Canada experience drier and warmer conditions than usual, while the Gulf Coast and South East see wetter conditions, is a driving factor in higher temperatures, in addition to current global emission levels. El Niño’s effects can cause more heat to be released into the atmosphere than usual and is associated with warmer yearly temperatures.
A hotter summer can have increasingly pressing effects, as these temperature changes can be associated with climate related disasters with catastrophic results. The month of August saw 19 named storms across the globe, with six of these storms hitting the Atlantic ocean, much higher than the usual rate for the area. In addition, eight of these named storms reached tropical cyclone strength. In the United States alone, there have been 23 climate disasters thus far, which have cost more than 1 billion dollars in damage, the highest cost ever in one year, even with numbers adjusted for inflation.
Many areas are experiencing never before seen weather disasters, such as Southern California, which was hit with its first ever tropical storm watch amidst Hurricane Hillary in August. In addition, several parts of Southern California received more rain in 48 hours during Hillary than they typically see all year.
Warmer oceans associated with the global temperature increase can also cause storms to gather more energy from the warmer water and become stronger when they form, in as little as a few hours. In addition, it is likely that a higher percentage of hurricanes will reach category three or higher, like recent storm Hurricane Idalia did.
“We can expect for the heat to continue for the rest of 2023,” NOAA climatologist Karin Gleason explains. So far, this year is only a fraction behind 2016 as the hottest overall year on record, a trend that could continue into 2024. Although El Niño is expected to begin dissipating by December, the effects typically take time to make their way around the globe. Depending on how long the effects of El Niño persist worldwide, its lagged effects combined with the growing effects of global warming related climate change could cause 2024 to be even hotter than 2023, estimated to surpass 2.7 degrees above pre industrial levels for the first time in humanity’s history.
Reaching the 2.7 degree mark is likely to result in tipping points, a phenomenon where small temperature alterations could begin having drastic effects on our global life support system, meaning there could be changes to our quality of air, food, water and more. The most daunting issue is not only that we are experiencing these extremes, but that these “record breaking conditions” are likely to continue, with a clear trend of extreme weather increasing in frequency and severity, according to Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service at the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast.
As fall begins, we can expect a much warmer start to the season than ever before, with temperatures reaching a high of 82 degrees this Tuesday (10/4) in Hoboken. It’s likely October will see the effects of this august continue as we prepare for an unprecedented next few months.
