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Experts warn of a potential fourth wave of COVID-19, despite vaccination numbers

Despite the growing number of Americans getting vaccinated, experts are worried about a potential fourth wave of COVID-19. Nearly one in five adults are fully vaccinated in the United States; however, there are some states that are experiencing an increase in coronavirus cases. The last week of March saw a jump in the number of reported cases in the United States. About 70,000 people tested positive, which is about a 20% increase from the previous two weeks.

Bill Hanage, a professor of epidemiology at Harvard, expresses concern about a fourth wave, especially since the concern is not limited to the original COVID-19 virus but also its variants that have developed around the world. For example, the variant that was identified in the United Kingdom known as the B.1.1.7. Hanage states that this particular variant has health professionals worried because it is about 50% more transmissible and it is more likely to cause serious illness. Recently, that particular variant has been detected in Florida and is one of the reasons there has been an uptick in cases there. Seeing how the variant, B.1.1.7, devastated Europe, has the U.S. racing to get as many Americans vaccinated before a fourth wave properly sets in.  

Another reason why health professionals and experts are worried is due to states opening back up. Even though states like Delaware, Wisconsin, and Florida are experiencing upticks in the number of cases, there are others who are getting prepared to open. California has a plan to open up by the beginning of June, and some states like Texas and Arkansas have lifted the mask requirement. From a worldwide perspective, the number of new cases has been increasing throughout March, which saw a 47% jump in reported cases from February, and in countries where reopening has started to happen, the number of cases has gone up; the best example of this is Chile. Chile has been the leading country in the Americas with getting people vaccinated, yet is still experiencing a sharp increase in cases. As more people got vaccinated, the restrictions in the country became more lenient, until a few weeks ago when Chile recorded about 7,600 new cases in a single day. Like in the U.S., the B.1.1.7 variant has been identified in the new cases, alongside the variant from Brazil. Unfortunately, the rise in cases has been accompanied by a rise in hospitalizations, leaving many hospitals with few beds for incoming patients. As a response to these new developments, the Chilean government has instituted strict lockdown measures in order to control the spread of the virus once more.


However, there is a possibility that this potential new wave is not as bad as the previous ones. Nationwide, the U.S. has seen an increase in cases, yet the rate of death has actually decreased. Particularly, in the U.S. there has not been a drastic increase in hospitalizations, and experts are still hopeful that a continuous rollout of the vaccine rollout, the severity of this fourth wave will not be too great.

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