The COVID-19 pandemic has given society a fast-motion glimpse of what climate change could entail, as both the pandemic and climate change have demonstrated lasting global impacts on people’s health and quality of life. Notably, the two have affected minority and low-income communities the most, and it’s safe to say that COVID-19 has given us an idea as to how a global crisis like climate change can affect our society.
The social and economic shutdowns that occurred early in 2020 led to noticeable changes in greenhouse gas emissions, as decreased transportation, business closures, and a work-from-home lifestyle took place. However, despite the sharp decline in emissions, NASA’s ozone-monitoring data has proven this to only be a temporary dent in our global efforts to combat climate change. As global emissions of carbon dioxide continue to rise again post-lockdown, the pandemic’s influence on reduced global greenhouse gas emissions won’t last long. Government policies and economic incentives that can secure long-term emissions cuts will need to be established to stifle the effects of climate change.
According to a study published by Nature, global carbon dioxide emissions fell by 6.4% in 2020, compared to the previous year, as the COVID-19 pandemic swept worldwide. It was also shown in this study that due to the sharp decline in vehicle transportation following the lockdowns in early 2020, the United States contributed the most to the global dip in emissions with an approximate 13% decrease. However, although the decline is significant, many climate researchers believe that these effects of the pandemic will not last once the pandemic is under control. As the global economy begins to pick up and vaccine roll-outs continue to occur worldwide, the rate of global emissions is expected to rise again. And according to a report released last month by the International Energy Agency, carbon dioxide output not only rebounded last December, but the levels of carbon emissions rose 2% higher than that in the same month of 2019.
Zhu Liu, an Earth-system scientist at Tsinghua University in Beijing and co-leader of the international Carbon Monitor program, explained in an article in Nature, “I imagine that when the pandemic ends, we probably will see a very strong rebound [in emissions].” The pandemic has provided us with a unique perspective on the challenges that lie ahead for countries to commit to a fight against climate change. According to the United Nations Environment Programme, the world would need to cut carbon emissions by 7.6% each year for the next decade in order to prevent the globe from warming more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, which is the goal set in the 2015 Paris Agreement. A reduction at this scale would be much larger than the one we observed during the pandemic, which only occurred as the world was forced to a standstill. David Waskow, head of the international climate program at the World Resources Institute, explains that history suggests that we should assume carbon emissions will return to normal following the pandemic. In order to curb global emissions post-pandemic, government actions and economic incentives will be crucial in promoting long-term effects on the environment.
In order to sustain a decline in global emissions, new policies must be established to address the counterproductive effects of the post-COVID-19 world. As global economies and people return to a more normal lifestyle after the pandemic, there will be an opportunity to address climate change by changing the behaviors and infrastructure that are being rebuilt. This can be accomplished through incentives that expedite a large-scale deployment of electric vehicles and encourage infrastructure that supports active transportation, such as walking and bicycle commuting. Improving or promoting remote working and learning environments, as well as encouraging the use of public transportation, could also be beneficial in the post-pandemic world. To encourage low-carbon electricity, renewable energy production should be encouraged and further incentivized as a means of post-pandemic measure. However, in order to meet the climate objectives established in the Paris Agreement, these measures would need to deliver a tenfold increase in the emission cuts seen from 2016 to 2019 among decarbonizing countries, as well as a significant global disinvestment in fossil fuel-based industries to make room for renewable, green technologies.
Emily Grubert, a civil and environmental engineer from Georgia Tech, explained that although achieving these types of goals after the pandemic “may feel daunting,” it is possible. People can still return to a new normal after the pandemic by seeing their friends and family, commuting to work, and visiting public spaces. In doing so, there can be two main ways to reduce energy consumption: people can use fewer services to reduce energy, which is what was observed during the pandemic, or use less energy to provide the same services, whether that be through increasing the use of clean energy or making service more energy efficient. Both methods can have similar benefits, according to Grubert, but with hardly any disruption from a normal lifestyle.
Unlike climate change, the effects of COVID-19 are right at people’s doorsteps. However, many misconceptions and feelings of disbelief of the pandemic still exist, especially in the United States. Support for climate change is even more difficult to acquire, since the topic possesses a psychological distance and diluted sense of urgency, causing people to be less concerned about it. Nonetheless, the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic followed closely to that of climate change, demonstrating the possible effects that could occur in the next several decades, in a matter of 12 months.
John Cook, a research assistant professor at the Center for Climate Change Communication at George Mason University explained that unlike COVID-19, “there’s no vaccine for denial.” If we want to ensure a long-term effect of the emission cuts that we saw a glimpse of in early 2020, we must follow through with policies and incentives that actively drive greenhouse gas emissions down and encourage the disinvestment of fossil fuels and the development of greener energy as the world begins to recover after the pandemic.
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