On February 28, 2026, the U.S. and Israel launched joint strikes against Iran, resulting in the death of the Supreme Leader and other top Iranian officials. In the six weeks since, the countries have been engaging in a back-and-forth of attacks.
Current Situation (as of April 13):
This past weekend, the U.S. and Iran met in Pakistan to engage in peace talks following the ceasefire declared on April 8th. The meeting was the highest-level peace talks the countries have conducted since the Iranian Revolution of 1979, but they were ultimately unsuccessful. During the negotiations, the U.S. asked for a 20-year freeze on Iran’s uranium enrichment, to which Iran countered with 5 years, which the U.S. rejected. Along with a freeze on uranium enrichment, Iran was also asked to dismantle enrichment facilities and remove its domestic stockpile of enriched uranium.
Following the failed negotiations, President Trump announced the institution of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz starting at 10 a.m. EST on Monday, April 13. During the conflict, though the Strait of Hormuz was not entirely shut down, Iran imposed egregiously high fees on tankers passing through, reportedly up to $2 million. President Trump has asked the U.S. Navy to “seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran.” Iran’s Revolutionary Guard responded with a warning that any military vessels attempting to approach the Strait “will be dealt with harshly and decisively,” according to state-affiliated Fars News. Civilian vessels and humanitarian shipments, however, are permitted to pass through without harm.
Timeline:
The most recent negotiations, handled by the American Vice President JD Vance and Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas, are a result of weeks of threats and strikes.
February 28th: The U.S. and Israel launch joint strikes on Iran, killing the Supreme Leader. Strikes hit a girls’ elementary school, resulting in 175 casualties, most of whom were children. This strike was later reported as a targeting mistake by the U.S. military.
March 1st: Iranian drone attacks killed 6 U.S. soldiers at Port Shuaiba, Kuwait, the first American casualties of war. Hezbollah, an Iran-backed militant group, fired rockets towards Israel in retaliation for the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader. At this time, President Trump anticipated sustained assaults for 4 to 5 weeks.
March 18th: Iran and U.S. allies attacked key energy infrastructure in the Gulf, including Iran’s South Pars Gas Field, and Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City. Qatar’s facility is the world’s largest LNG export plant.
March 23rd: Trump announced the U.S. and Iran were discussing an end to the war, the first indication of diplomatic talks between the countries. Iran publicly rejected President Trump’s announcements, claiming no negotiations were taking place, referring to these announcements as fake news.
April 3rd: Iran shot down a U.S. Air Force F-15E fighter jet carrying two crew members, one of whom was recovered the day of the crash safely. The risky search for the second airman lasted two days, taking rescue squads into deep Iran. Both crew members were recovered.
April 5th: President Trump warned that Iran could be “taken out in one night”, and set a deadline of 8 PM EST on April 7th for the Iranians to comply. Trump vowed that every power plant and bridge in the country would be left “burning, exploding, and never to be used again”.
April 7th: Trump posted on Truth Social, warning that “a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again”, followed by a declaration of a two-week ceasefire with Iran later the same day. The Israeli military issued warnings to Iranian civilians to avoid trains and railway lines.
April 13th: American blockade of the Strait of Hormuz began at 10 A.M. EST, with Trump posting on Truth Social, “Warning: If any of these ships come anywhere close to our BLOCKADE, they will be immediately ELIMINATED.”
Significance of the Strait of Hormuz
Most coverage of the war has revolved around the Strait of Hormuz and oil prices. The Strait of Hormuz, situated between the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, and the Arabian Sea, is the main gateway for energy suppliers. A large share of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply passes through the corridor, accounting for up to one-fifth of global oil demand.
Attacks and uncertainty around the Strait’s safety create a significant drop in commercial oil supply transit. Attacks also greatly affect shipping insurance premiums, energy supply planning, and oil prices. Transporting oil becomes expensive for all exporters due to the added danger in the Strait.
Iran, like many other countries, has an economy reliant on trade, particularly its oil exports. When the Strait of Hormuz is impacted, the global economy is severely impacted. Brent crude rose by more than 4% intraday and settled around $103 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI crude) around $97 per barrel.
With negotiations stalling and military actions escalating, the war becomes increasingly unpredictable, with economic impacts felt across the globe. The coming weeks will likely determine whether the conflict shifts towards diplomacy or intensifies into a prolonged conflict.
