This article will likely be the last of several recent columns I’ve written on the 2024 elections. It’s also the hardest to write. Primarily, the statistics I will cover are still preliminary as votes continue to be counted, which makes drawing conclusions a difficult and perhaps foolhardy task. They also reflect what I see as a sad state of affairs for many of the world’s leading nations and deeply uncertain times ahead. So, allaying fears or anger is also virtually impossible with just one article.
I merely want to share a perspective on the elections that has helped me process the results over the past week. This perspective starts with the argument that the wins of Donald Trump and the Republican Party fit a larger pattern of voters casting their ballots with a staunch anti-incumbent focus. Some of you may have seen the New York Times graphic of a country painting itself red as many voters shifted from a Joe Biden-Kamala Harris vote in 2020 to Trump-J.D. Vance in 2024. There are also statistics showing voters from all walks of life, especially in urban areas, making a marked shift to the Republicans as Democratic turnout dropped off.
But we could also look at a map of the United Kingdom, which painted itself red earlier this year as the Labour Party won a historic majority against the Conservatives, who had been in power for the past 14 years. Or of Japan, whose dominant center-right party has lost its long-held majority to a patchwork of center-left parties. In France, while the centrists and conservatives may be able to form a government, several left-wing parties banded together to win the most legislative seats in this summer’s snap elections. Lastly, a country bucking this anti-incumbent trend was Mexico, which elected its first woman president (and Ph.D. holder!) Gloria Sheinbaum in a landslide victory for the leftist populist party Morena, formed by Andrés Manuel López Obrador, a figure with a cult of personality similar to Trump’s.
So, is this the end of center-left parties? While the 2024 results may signal an end to a period of general Democratic dominance — holding the presidency for 12 of the past 16 years and, prior to this year, winning the popular vote for all but one presidential election since 2000—they by no means tell us that center-left or left-wing politics is on the way out. There is, nonetheless, work to be done, and I think part of that work involves a balance between stressing mathematics’ importance and showing greater compassion for many frustrated factions within the U.S.
It seems like a primary reason voters ousted many incumbent parties was the rise in inflation post-COVID. Democrats like Biden and Harris struggled to connect with voters on this issue since all the stats they shared about how the economy was still great and inflation was back down to reasonable levels seemed to inadequately address how people felt worried or mad about rising costs. Sure, math and statistics give us a solid, objective understanding of complex systems, but their presentation matters when it comes to persuading others and mitigating concerns.
Similarly, we must continue to hold Republicans to account as Trump and others tout spurious mathematics or statistics on a wide range of issues. A worrisome scenario is the changing of reports by several government agencies — which has already happened before—to get better numbers for the economy, which may happen if inflation kicks up again and Trump worries about the ensuing lower approval ratings. This is a reminder for all of us, as we go into fields involving mathematics and statistics, to defend objectivity, especially when subjectivity can put people in danger.
It will be a challenging road ahead, and mathematics can only do so well at forecasting — look at the polls showing this election is close, for instance, as one solemn reminder of that. Ultimately, I believe this road will require all of us to exhibit aggressive compassion as we continue our STEM studies and continue calling out injustice wherever it arises. This is the way to defend our rights and livelihood as we eventually go out into a chaotic, yet still hope-filled, world.
