On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, shocking world leaders and citizens alike. This invasion was the start of the war between the two countries, once united under the Soviet Union, that still continues today. “The roots of the tension can be tied to some combination of the complicated history between the two countries, Russia’s ongoing tensions with NATO and the ambitions of one man: [Vladimir] Putin,” writes Elliot Davis Jr. of US News.
The Council of Foreign Affairs pointed at “Ukraine’s ambitions to align itself more with Western countries – including its publicly stated interest in joining NATO” as the main contributors to Russia’s aggression. For the longest time, it seemed as though Ukraine was at the mercy of this aggression, as the country and its supporters had wavering hope in the chances of this war ending. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently launched an attack on Russia that many believe will change the tides of this global conflict.
On August 6 of this year, Zelenskyy launched an incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, giving the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, control over nearly 500 square miles of Russian territory and taking hundreds Russian prisoners of war. This was a prophylactic measure meant to keep Russia from forming a buffer zone along Ukraine’s border, as this would create more physical distance between the armed forces and make Ukraine more vulnerable during this time. Zelenskyy told NBC news that the Biden administration was not involved in or aware of this attack and no further details regarding future plans of attack can be divulged at this time. He accredits the success of this attack to the secrecy of the plans. In the first one-on-one interview since his country was first invaded years ago, Zelenskyy told NBC, “We don’t need their land. We don’t want to bring our Ukrainian way of life there.” Kyiv intends to hold onto this territory as a way of forcing Putin into an agreement to end the war.
At this point, it would seem as though both countries are more focused on gaining ground on their enemy than protecting their own land. An anonymous Western Intelligence official told NBC, “Ukrainians are taking and holding Russian land. Russians are pushing in the east. It could be a question of who withdraws their forces first.” US officials say that the Russian military has not yet diverted any of its troops from eastern Ukraine to combat Ukrainian forces currently holding Russian territory. Instead, in the weeks following the incursion, Russia has claimed over a dozen new settlements in Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and the eastern Donetsk region. CIA Deputy Director David Cohen told NBC that it would be difficult for Russia to take back the territory because Ukraine has already begun building military defenses and set up many bases.
Some influential military bloggers have voiced their criticisms of Russia’s military leadership for letting the incursion happen and doing nothing about the Russian citizens now living under Ukrainian rule. Despite this, there has been no public outrage at Putin or the top-ranking officials even though over 130,000 Russians were forced to flee the war zone. The war has progressed deeper into Russia, as drone strikes have destroyed air bases, oil depots, and other crucial infrastructure. In spite of this, Russian state media continues to push the message that things are under control and Putin continues his usual domestic and foreign travels. On August 24 of this year, Ukraine celebrated its independence day in peace for the first time in 2 years.
Sergey Mikheev, a Russian political analyst, fears that this combined with lack of response from the country’s leaders will lead to “demobilization and international demotivation” of Russians. He says that time is running out for Putin to respond and take action on the land that was seized and whether or not he chooses to will decide the fate of this war.
