Introduction
After Election Day 2021, a few states in the union have yielded interesting results. First, Virginia elected a new Republican governor just one year removed from a ten-point margin in favor of President Biden. Then, an expected victory for incumbent governor, Phil Murphy, in New Jersey turned into a photo-finish, with a final estimated margin of just 2-3% and 65,000 votes according to the Associated Press.
Governor Murphy’s campaign is now urging their challenger, Jack Ciattarelli, to concede defeat. Ciattarelli’s campaign has said it will not concede, and will make its decision regarding a recount request only when the complete counting of ballots is completed.
This week’s installment of The Conversation will focus on this race which has potential ramifications for all Stevens students. The Campus Liberal, Peter White, and Campus Conservative, Jackson Hudgins, will discuss the implications of the 2021 New Jersey election in the following sections, followed by a united synthesis in the conclusion.
Campus Conservative, Jackson Hudgins
The election results here in New Jersey would certainly be a shock to those who observed polling in the months preceding November 2. In nearly every single poll, Jack Ciattarelli trailed Governor Murphy by an average of 7.5 points, which is a formidable polling advantage, even more so considering Murphy is the incumbent. However, on Election Day, it was very clear that the unpopularity of many Democratic Party policies and an emphasis on the problems that matter to voters led to a much closer race. Phil Murphy ultimately carried the state by only 2.5 points, a startling departure from the predictions of pundits and politicians nationwide. Every county in the state—with the exception of Hudson County—swung toward the GOP compared to the 2020 Presidential results. This swing is an excellent sign for the GOP in 2022 and provides a roadmap back into the suburbs.
Most of the swing to the GOP was driven by suburban areas, former Republican strongholds, and rapidly red-shifting counties in South Jersey. In Atlantic, Cumberland, and Gloucester Counties, voters shifted from a 7-, 6-, and 2-point win for Biden respectively to a 10- to 12-point win for Ciattarelli. Morris County, a historic stronghold for the Republicans, swung from 4-point Democratic win to a 12-point Republican win. Finally, Bergen, Somerset, and Passaic counties—suburbs that have leaned Democratic since the ‘90s—swung from double digit wins for Democrats to single digit margins. This consistent swing back to the Republican party is a testament to the party’s emphasis on the issues that matter to voters; education has become a vital issue post-COVID, and the Democratic party has rightly been seen as having much less care about students’ interests and more about union interests. In addition, Biden and his agenda’s popularity has cratered in the recent months, as many Americans disapprove of the job he is doing and have very little confidence that the country is on the right track. Given the Democratic party has trended leftward in recent years, suburbs that voted for Biden instead of Trump feel and will continue to feel betrayed, as Biden ran as a moderate, not a progressive. This sentiment will almost guarantee that Republicans will continue their gains in 2022.
Campus Liberal, Peter White
A trend that was disastrously brought to light in the 2016 presidential election has again continued to terrorize the Democratic party in the 2021 elections. The Democrats lead in early polls, just as Hillary Clinton did in this election forecast by fivethirtyeight, showing that the American people believe in what they think the party stands for. Then they don’t actually campaign on those issues, and instead campaign on the fact that their party does not have Donald Trump. Finally, after the Republicans actually do campaign on issues like taxation, which was Ciattarelli’s primary platform, the race goes completely different than the polls predicted.
Although Phil Murphy is by no means a standard Democrat, his progressive policies and record didn’t seem strong enough in this election to overcome the language used by Republicans. The problem plaguing the Democratic Party is not that they are too left leaning, it’s that they are not leaning into the characteristics that make them popular. The party that has been the party of immigrants, of the LGBT community, and of African Americans in the past now fails to pass laws benefiting any of these groups, while controlling both chambers of Congress and the executive office. The party at least partially got behind the Black Lives Matter movement, but then failed to pass any supporting legislation. These are the issues that push voters to give the liberal party an advantage in polls, but when they inevitably back off their potential progressive victories, their agenda becomes slimmer and slimmer.
Just as this narrow victory for Phil Murphy should be encouraging to Republicans, it must be taken as another dire warning for the Democrats. They have to fully commit to improving life for America’s marginalized communities. They have to campaign on the issues and not on the people.
Conclusion
Although it is ultimately just one election, both sides seem to agree that it will have large ramifications for the future of American politics. An undeniably strong showing from the Republican party putting forward a very conservative candidate against one of the most progressive governors in the nation, suggests a successful campaign strategy, while the Democrats will have to regroup. A lot of this discussion has centered around broad political strategy but it is important to note that this election will have an impact on everyone who lives in or goes to school in New Jersey, including us Stevens students.
The Conversation is an Opinion column written by two students of opposing political viewpoints, used to discuss current events from different perspectives.
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