With the coronavirus pandemic seemingly far from over, it is difficult to shift our attention to yet another virus. But with the annual flu season approaching, it is clear that COVID-19 is not the only virus around. Not only must we continue to face the COVID-19 outbreaks across the country but we must also be cautious as another virus emerges.
Avoiding contact with other people has been the most recommended way to prevent exposure to coronavirus. This concept is not unique to the COVID-19 pandemic. Distancing yourself from other people (and common surfaces) can prevent most viruses. During the Spanish Flu in 1918, the U.S. and other countries took preventative measures, such as requiring masks and outlawing large public gatherings.
However, a report released this month by the American Society for Microbiology explains that social distancing may be a “double-edged sword.”
Having bacterial diversity in our bodies is what determines the strength of our immune system. A lack of diversity in the bacteria we are exposed to is called dysbiosis and results in less protective bacteria in one’s body. The report shows that dysbiosis has been linked to diseases including Chron’s disease, celiac disease, and type 1 diabetes. People who struggle with these diseases often are more likely to get severely ill from viruses and bacteria. After months of hyperactively avoiding the coronavirus, it is unclear how our immune systems will respond to this flu season.
Another important part of social distancing is the use of masks. Though the topic has been debated by the public, most public health officials have supported wearing masks whenever proper social distancing is not possible. I spoke with Professor Muka, a medical historian at Stevens, about her thoughts on the upcoming flu season. Optimistically, Professor Muka said that the flu season may help prove the science behind masks. She explained that “if we are to experience a lighter flu season, it may help prove that masks do work” in preventing the spread of viruses.
Professor Muka also predicts that the flu season will improve COVID-19 testing, as people will have trouble differentiating between flu and COVID symptoms. While some people may just take to Google to try to identify their symptoms, others may be more likely to get tested for COVID-19. Improved testing helps medical professionals and policymakers to better understand the virus and how it spreads.
In other ways, however, this flu season may be worse than in past years. Recently, the anti-vaccination movement has gained traction. Celebrities such as Matt Lauer and Jenny McCarthy have helped push this movement into fruition, causing vaccinations to decrease slightly across the country. The pandemic has brought fears about vaccines even farther into the mainstream. With an emboldened anti-vaccination movement, Professor Muka fears there may be a decline in the number of people choosing to receive the flu shot this year.
This is bad for “herd immunity,” a term that has gained attention during the COVID-19 pandemic. Herd immunity refers to the idea that if more people are immune to a virus, it will spread less quickly through a population. There are two ways in which herd immunity can be achieved: infection and vaccination. In the case of the coronavirus, experts estimate that at least 70% of the population would have to be infected and recover from COVID-19 in order to reach herd immunity and halt the spread of this virus. The other way to reach herd immunity is through vaccinations. Vaccinations allow us to build up antibodies that fight off the virus without having to be infected by the virus itself. Vaccinating more people for a certain virus slows and can even prevent its spread. If more people choose not to get the flu vaccine, it could cause a more rapid and severe spread of the virus this season.
We do have some indication of the severity of this flu season from some countries in the Southern Hemisphere, including Australia, Chile, and South Africa. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported on September 18 that these three countries experienced lighter flu seasons than normal this year. The social distancing measures in place for COVID-19 may be reducing the spread of the flu in certain areas around the world. This gives some people hope for the flu season as it moves north. However, it is also possible that this flu season is just lighter than in other years since infection rates tend to fluctuate annually.
So what does this mean for us? The answer is still unclear. The overlap of COVID-19 and flu season could have some benefits for testing and mask use. However, it is unknown how our immune systems will respond, and if fewer people will get vaccinated. As far as Professor Muka can tell, “masks are likely to be sticking around.” So while we wait for a vaccine to emerge, keep washing your hands, avoid touching your face, and wear your mask. And if you can’t figure out whether you have COVID or the flu, don’t just Google your symptoms. Get tested.
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