While the world has been focused on the ongoing pandemic, a topic that generally dominates the news cycle has fallen to the wayside: the 2020 United States election. While most newspaper front pages have been ignoring the election, COVID-19 has not. The primary season has been radically changed by the spread of the novel coronavirus, with some states postponing their elections; the Democratic National Convention has also been delayed until August from its original July date.
Super Tuesday on March 3 proceeded mostly without issue, with some states even recording voter turnout numbers above 2016’s primaries. Eight states held Democratic primaries on March 10: Michigan, Missouri, Mississippi, North Dakota, Idaho, and Washington. Of those, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders was victorious in only North Dakota; every other state was claimed by former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. Political pundits considered Biden’s victories in Michigan and Washington to be startling upsets, as Sanders won both of those states in his 2016 race against the eventual nominee, Hillary Clinton. Much attention was given to the Michigan race in particular, as Michigan is one of three Midwestern states identified as “tipping point states” which President Donald Trump won in 2016. (The others are Pennsylvania and Wisconsin; if the Democratic nominee flips only those three states, they win the election).
Due to Biden’s upset victories in Michigan and Washington, Sanders faced calls from some members of the party to withdraw his candidacy and let Biden focus on the general election. Sanders announced on March 11 that he would not do so; a one-on-one debate was held between the two septuagenarians on March 15. FiveThirtyEight reported that Biden generally gained support after the debate, while Sanders generally lost support. During the debate, Biden announced that should he win the nomination, his running mate for vice president would definitely be a woman.
Four states were originally scheduled to hold primaries on March 17: Florida, Ohio, Illinois, and Arizona. However, as the spread of COVID-19 intensified in the United States, Governor Mike DeWine of Ohio canceled the election the night before it would have been held. This began a long series of legal challenges, which ultimately resulted in Ohio allowing voters to vote by mail until April 28, when ballots would be tallied and a winner announced.
The remaining three states proceeded with their elections under various conditions. Florida had undertaken an aggressive campaign to register voters to vote by mail, and saw voter turnout rise slightly above the 2016 primary. Illinois was not as prepared, and saw decreased turnout. The novel coronavirus had not spread significantly within Arizona, so Democrats in The Grand Canyon State headed to polls like normal.
Ultimately, Biden won all three March 17 states. After Arizona was called for Biden, some pundits and models, such as Politico, forecast that Arizona would become a potential swing state in the November general election, even though no Democrat has won Arizona’s presidential vote this millennium.
Biden now leads Sanders in the pledged delegate race 1,217 to 914. 1,991 pledged delegates are required to win the nomination on the first ballot. All other candidates combined hold 171 pledged delegates.
After all March 17 states were called, Nate Silver, prominent electoral statistician and publisher of FiveThirtyEight, declared that the primary was “not competitive” and urged Sanders to drop out of the race.
However, the Sanders campaign intensified its calls for voters to support their progressive agenda over Biden’s candidacy.
As discussions began in the United States Senate on a bill that would eventually become the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, Sanders began to focus his campaign message on the pandemic, claiming that the national crisis provided evidence for the need for his signature proposal of a nationwide single-payer healthcare system.
As the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases skyrocketed in the states of Washington, New York, and New Jersey, many states began to take proactive steps to protect public health in the context of the election. Fifteen states have now delayed their primaries: Alaska, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Hawaii, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, West Virginia, Wyoming. Puerto Rico has also delayed their primary.
Several of those states have switched to voting entirely by mail, while some have simply delayed voting. 12 states are now holding their elections on June 2, New Jersey’s originally planned primary date. In previous primaries, it was uncommon for candidates to campaign seriously in June 2 states such as New Jersey; it remains unclear if Sanders will still be contesting the election at that point.
New York has moved their primary even later, to June 23; under Democratic National Committee rules, any state or territory that holds their primary after June 9 risks losing some of their delegates (and thus their relevance to the national election) at the convention. Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York announced the delay by saying that he doesn’t “think it’s wise to be bringing a lot of people to one location to vote, a lot of people touching one doorknob, a lot of people touching one pen.” Overall, every state who had a primary scheduled in the second half of March has delayed their primary.
Wisconsin’s state government has remained adamant that it will proceed with its April 7 election, meaning Wisconsin is currently the next state on the primary calendar. Four other states and territories are voting in April: Alaska on April 10 (originally scheduled for April 4), Wyoming on April 17 (also originally scheduled for April 4), Puerto Rico on April 26 (originally scheduled for March 29), and Ohio (in-person only; most voters must vote by mail. Originally scheduled for March 17).
Beyond April, six states and territories currently have primaries scheduled for May, and 16 states and territories have primaries scheduled for June. Kentucky and New York are the final states on the calendar.
Despite the still-contested election, Biden has reportedly begun the vetting process for potential running mates. Biden’s pledge to select a woman for his number two fueled speculation that he already had a candidate in mind; however, his campaign has since stated that he has reduced the potential pool of candidates to a five-person shortlist and was in active discussions with state and local leaders regarding that shortlist. Biden was overheard discussing the merits of Senator Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, Chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, with former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who remains influential in Nevada politics. Other potential candidate who have been the subject of media speculation include Senator Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, Senator Tammy Duckworth of Illinois, Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota (who herself ran for president and amassed 7 pledged delegates before withdrawing to endorse Biden), Governor Gretchin Whitmer of Michigan, and Senator Kamala Harris of California (who also ran for president this cycle, but dropped out before the primaries began). Biden has previously stated that he believed it is “important” that a vice president has proven themselves on the presidential debate stage prior to running for vice president; it’s unclear how seriously this criteria weighs against others in Biden’s consideration for the position. Biden himself had run for president in 2008, when then-Senator Barack Obama of Illinois selected Biden as his running mate.
Biden has spoken to both Sanders and former President Obama about his ongoing vice president search.
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