In order to fully understand the current crisis in Venezuela, we have to look a little bit into the past. Current President Nicolas Maduro is under fire from all sides, but his predecessor Hugo Chavez was incredibly popular with working-class Venezuelans. His increase in social programs catapulted him to four consecutive presidential terms. Chavez built the Venezuelan economy around soaring oil prices and nationalized several industries. However, in 2011, Chavez was diagnosed with cancer, and in 2013 he passed away. Chavez’s chosen successor and then Vice President Nicolas Maduro inherited the presidency from him. While a global recession and slightly lower oil prices had harmed Venezuela’s economy, the country was fairly politically stable. Inflation was rising, but the new President Maduro was doing his best to combat it. However, almost every single negative indicator began spiking just a year later in 2014, and a global surplus caused oil prices to hit rock bottom. The Venezuelan economy, while hanging on by a thread, quickly began to collapse. Without their primary source of income, inflation rose dramatically, thousands of businesses closed, food shortages began, and the country entered a recession.
Demonstrations against the Maduro regime soon began, and persisted over the next four years as oil prices never returned to their original state. Inflation rates began massively spiking, and by 2016 they had risen to 800%. Going into the 2018 Presidential election, it seemed that the previously praised successor to Hugo Chavez was going to lose the presidency. However, Maduro was actually re-elected for a second term. The election’s date was pulled forward over six months from December to May of 2018, and had the lowest voter turnout in the history of Democracy in Venezuela, with 25% of the population coming out to vote. Reports also surfaced of the Maduro government bribing citizens to vote for Maduro with promises of food. Two of Maduro’s election opponents contested the results, and the United States, the EU, Australia, and many other countries rejected the results. Other countries like Russia, Iran, China, and Cuba all recognized the results as legitimate. Pro- and anti-Maduro marches broke out across the nation after the election. Because of this, in September 2018, the United States began to apply sanctions to Venezuela, which crippled their economy further.
On January 10, 2019, Nicolas Maduro was sworn in for a second term as President of Venezuela. The very next day, Juan Guaido, the President of Venezuela’s National Assembly declared himself Interim President of Venezuela, citing clause 233 of the Venezuelan constitution. According to clause 233, the President of the National Assembly gains powers as the acting President when the presidency is otherwise vacant. According to Guaido, if the 2018 elections are illegitimate as he believes them to be, then Maduro is not President, and he should be able to take temporary powers as President until new elections can be held. On January 23, United States President Donald Trump declared his support for Guaido. In response, Maduro ordered that all United States diplomats leave the country within 72 hours. While a deal was reached allowing U.S. diplomats to stay, tensions remain incredibly high. Both Guaido and Maduro consider themselves legitimate presidents, and lines of support have been drawn. Several high-profile U.S. politicians such as Ro Khanna, Bernie Sanders, Rashida Tlaib, and Alexandria-Ocasio Cortez have expressed opposition to a U.S.-backed military coup in Venezuela. At the same time, National Security Advisor John Bolton and Vice President Mike Pence have expressed their support for a “return to democracy” in Venezuela, in whatever form that may take. The presidential crisis in Venezuela is still a developing situation.
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