Well, it’s comforting to know that Trump policies can win for both a Republican and Democratic candidate. For those of you who don’t know what happened in Pennsylvania a few weeks ago, let me break this down for you. There was a special election held in Alleghany County, PA, because news broke that a Republican Congressman had an affair, got his mistress pregnant, and wanted her to get an abortion. That congressman resigned, leaving a vacant seat and requiring a special election to be held. So, what had been considered a fairly solid Republican seat in a Democratic part of the country was up for grabs. Trump won the district by 20 points in 2016, so many felt this could be a huge referendum on his presidency.
Alleghany County is a unique area because of its historic mix of Republican and Democratic positions. The population is highly supportive of unions and strict labor laws, but they are also firm supporters of the Second Amendment and tend to be socially conservative.
The Republicans ran a lackluster candidate who didn’t excite the base. Meanwhile, the Democrats ran an excellent candidate who fit his district perfectly. Former Marine Conor Lamb ran not as a Nancy Pelosi Democrat but as a center-left candidate, a rarity in the age of radical leftism. He sided with Trump on the idea of steel and aluminum tariffs. This was a smart move in the city that houses US Steel headquarters and manufacturing plants around the county. However, he only partially sided with Trump on other issues. He called tax cuts a giveaway to the wealthy but still good for the middle class, except for the fact that it would add to the national debt. He said that he personally opposes abortion, but since it’s a right under the Supreme Court decision, he’s basically okay with it. Finally, concerning the hot button issue right now, gun control, he’s said during speeches that he only wants to tighten up background checks, but not add any new gun control laws.
This is radically different from the most popular figures in today’s Democratic party, like Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, who voted ‘no’ on the tax bill and still refuse to support it, want the second amendment basically repealed, and want abortion on demand. Every Democrat is told to vote with the party no matter what, and so far that strategy has allowed Democrats to do a good job at stopping Trump’s agenda.
It’s also interesting to note that seats tend to flip sides when they are caught up in some sort of major scandal. Over the past ten years or so, a handful of elected representatives have been caught red-handed doing something the public deems below their ideal standards for politicians. The fact that this election was so close says something good for the Republicans, even if the seat was won by a razor-thin margin.
So what does this mean for the 2018 midterm elections in seven months? Two things. One, if the Democrats really want to win they will need strong candidates that may not be in lockstep with them all the time. Two, if Trump can continue to excite his base the election might not be a huge loss as it has been historically for the party in power. But the election is still far off and a lot can change between now and then. Who can forget the infamous Billy Bush tapes and the letter from James Comey that may have helped to sway the election in the end only weeks prior to the election itself?
Trump is starting to poll higher than ever before, even taking a shot at President Obama on twitter saying that his poll ratings are higher now than Obama’s were. If this holds true, its a good sign for Republicans that the election won’t be a total wipeout and that Democrats had better bring their A-game before it’s too late.
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